Crypto analyst ChartNerd has reaffirmed his long-term outlook for XRP, arguing that the cryptocurrency remains on track to revisit the middle regression band of the Gaussian Channel before any sustained recovery begins.
In a recent post on X, the analyst wrote, “We’re mapping this move perfectly thus far,” adding that he is still “patiently waiting” for XRP to return to the middle regression band. His latest assessment builds on a long-running thesis that the asset follows a recurring historical structure after losing support at a key regression level.
According to ChartNerd, XRP is once again following a pattern that has appeared several times over the past decade, placing renewed attention on the $0.84 to $0.87 region.
Historical Pattern Returns to Focus
ChartNerd’s analysis is based on XRP’s monthly chart within the Gaussian Channel, a long-term trend indicator that he believes has consistently tracked the cryptocurrency’s major market cycles.
The chart spans XRP’s price action from 2014 through the current cycle and highlights two key regression levels. The white line represents the Upper Regression Channel, currently near $1.35, while the green line marks the Middle Regression Channel, positioned around $0.84 to $0.87.
According to the analyst, previous market cycles in 2016, 2019, and 2022 followed a similar sequence. In each instance, XRP lost support at the upper regression band before eventually declining toward the middle regression band.
He believes the current cycle is developing in much the same way.
Middle Regression Band Becomes Key Level
With XRP now trading below the Upper Regression Channel, ChartNerd believes the market’s attention should shift toward the middle regression zone.
His chart identifies the Middle Regression Channel near $0.84, while his accompanying commentary references a target around $0.87. The highlighted section of the chart suggests he expects XRP to continue moving toward that area if the historical pattern remains intact.
However, the analyst did not project a move significantly below the middle regression band.
Instead, the chart indicates that previous visits to the middle regression level eventually produced strong recoveries, making the area an important support zone to monitor should XRP complete the expected retracement.
Related article: XRP’s Role as a Global Liquidity Bridge Gains Attention as Analyst Highlights Ripple’s Vision
Analyst Says Opportunity Zone Has Arrived
Despite maintaining a near-term bearish outlook, ChartNerd expressed confidence that much of the downside associated with the current pattern may already have played out.
“The time to be fearful has passed. The land of opportunity has arrived,” he wrote.
His comments suggest he views any further decline toward the middle regression band as part of a longer-term accumulation phase rather than the beginning of a new structural breakdown.
ChartNerd has previously outlined an $8 long-term price target for XRP once the current retracement cycle is complete. For now, however, he believes the historical relationship between the Gaussian Channel’s upper and middle regression bands continues to support a move toward the $0.84 to $0.87 region before the next major advance begins.
