Toncoin (TON) has staged a solid recovery over the past 24 hours, but its upward momentum is facing strong resistance around key technical levels. Despite initial bullish signs, the token appears to be struggling to break above significant resistance levels, which could limit further upside in the near term.
Overview of Price Action
In the last 24 hours, Toncoin has seen a strong upward move from a low of $4.95, reaching a high of $5.20. This marks a nearly 3% recovery, demonstrating buyers actively defending lower levels. However, the recovery has stalled near $5.18, with the price now oscillating around this mark. The $5.25 level, corresponding to the 200-hour exponential moving average (EMA), acts as a significant resistance point.
EMA Analysis: Struggling Near the 200-EMA
The exponential moving averages are providing insight into Toncoin’s price momentum. The 20-EMA ($5.14) and the 50-EMA ($5.13) have provided solid short-term support, helping the price to recover. However, the 100-EMA ($5.16) and 200-EMA ($5.25) are proving to be formidable barriers. The price has tested the 100-EMA multiple times but has yet to sustain a clear break above it, highlighting the strength of the resistance at this level.
For the bulls to maintain control, Toncoin needs to clear the 200-EMA, which is hovering just above the current price. If the price fails to break above the 200-EMA in the next few hours, it may fall back to retest the 20-EMA for support, increasing the likelihood of a consolidation phase between $5.10 and $5.25.
RSI Divergence: Weakening Momentum
Despite the recent upward push, the RSI divergence on the chart is showing signs of weakening momentum. The RSI value of 3.85 suggests that while there was a strong reversal signal earlier, the momentum is starting to fade. This is further confirmed by the stalling price action near the $5.18 mark. If the RSI divergence weakens further, the bullish trend may run out of steam before the price can break the $5.25 resistance level.
Conclusion
Toncoin is currently facing significant resistance near the $5.20 level, as indicated by the 200-EMA acting as a ceiling for the price. While the RSI divergence provided initial signs of a bullish reversal, momentum is beginning to weaken. A decisive break above $5.25 would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, but failure to do so could lead to consolidation or even a short-term correction.
