Toncoin (TON) has been trading within a tight range over the past 24 hours, displaying signs of consolidation. While the current price is $5.591, notable indicators suggest Toncoin is preparing for its next significant move. Let’s examine the key technical indicators, including moving averages and the RSI divergence, to assess the potential direction of Toncoin in the short term.

Key Moving Averages: Pressures on Both Sides

Toncoin’s price is close to the 20-day EMA, currently at $5.532. This moving average provides short-term support, but the 50-day EMA at $5.508 and the 100-day EMA at $5.632 act as resistance points. The convergence of these moving averages suggests that Toncoin is facing strong upward resistance, but it is also receiving support from the lower averages. This creates a narrow trading range where a decisive move is likely imminent.

If Toncoin can push through the 100-day EMA at $5.632, it could trigger a rally toward the 200-day EMA at $5.896. However, if it fails to maintain support at the 20-day EMA, we may see a breakdown toward lower support levels around $5.200. Therefore, traders should closely monitor these key moving averages to anticipate the next big move.

Despite these technical pressures, Toncoin’s broader trajectory looks promising. Following its settlement with the U.S. SEC in 2020, Toncoin has steadily distanced itself from its early association with Telegram. Experts like Felix argue that challenges tied to Pavel Durov’s legal issues mainly relate to regional compliance concerns affecting traditional tech companies rather than the cryptocurrency itself. This separation allows Toncoin to evolve independently, a common path for successful crypto projects.

Related article: Toncoin Surges Amid CEO Arrest and Bitcoin Crash

RSI Divergence: Signals of a Possible Reversal

The RSI divergence indicator shows a reading of 1.483, signalling a minor bullish divergence. This suggests that while price action has been consolidating, underlying strength in the market could potentially lead to a reversal. However, the RSI remains relatively weak, and traders should be cautious about interpreting this signal as a definitive buy signal. Instead, it should be seen as an early warning sign that momentum may shift in favour of the bulls.

Backing this potential shift, Shauli Rejwan of Masterkey VC notes that many successful projects eventually separate from their initial associations, and Toncoin seems to be on a similar trajectory. By distancing itself from its early connections, Toncoin is carving out its place in crypto, which may enhance investor confidence in the long term.

Next Steps: Breakout or Breakdown?

Toncoin’s consolidation phase will likely resolve soon, with either a breakout above the $5.632 resistance or a breakdown below the $5.532 support. The next 24 hours will be crucial in determining which direction Toncoin will take. A breakout could lead to a test of the $6.00 level, while a breakdown could result in a retest of lower support levels.

Traders should stay vigilant and watch for volume spikes, which could provide additional confirmation of a breakout or breakdown. Additionally, keeping an eye on the RSI and moving averages will help traders make informed decisions about the next potential move in Toncoin’s price.