Trump Coin ($TRUMP) spiked sharply on Thursday, benefiting from a broader market rebound that lifted Bitcoin, altcoins, and U.S. equities. The token climbed to $12.45, its highest price since May 3, marking a 72% gain from April lows and pushing its market cap above $2.46 billion.
The rally coincided with Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 milestone and the total crypto market cap rising 2% to $3.2 trillion, adding momentum to speculative tokens like TRUMP.
Much of the recent excitement surrounds an upcoming exclusive dinner with former President Donald Trump, scheduled to take place at his Virginia golf club. The event will host over 200 of the top Trump Coin holders, with the top 25 gaining access to a private VIP tour.
Political Fallout and Regulatory Scrutiny Loom
While the dinner has energised TRUMP supporters, it’s also sparked political backlash. Critics, particularly Democrats and ethics watchdog groups, accuse Trump of profiting from his political position. Several lawmakers have already threatened to pursue impeachment proceedings if they regain control of Congress.
Adding to the controversy, a Bloomberg analysis found that 56% of the top TRUMP holders are non-U.S. investors, many of whom used platforms like Binance, OKX, and Bybit—all of which are restricted in the U.S. This raises concerns about foreign influence and regulatory compliance.
Will Trump Coin Keep Rising?
There’s a case for further upside in the lead-up to the dinner. Speculative buyers may continue piling in, hoping to secure a spot at the event or capitalize on the hype. If sentiment stays bullish and no negative news surfaces, TRUMP could retest its April high of $16.41.
Technically, the token has:
- Rebounded from its $7.13 low in April
- Surged to $16.41 on April 26
- Pulled back to $10.30, then rebounded again
- Broken out of a falling wedge pattern, a standard bullish reversal signal
- Moved above the 25-period moving average, confirming short-term momentum
These factors suggest $TRUMP could revisit $16.41, potentially forming a double-top pattern—a level to watch for resistance.
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But Risks Are Rising
Still, the token faces multiple downside risks:
- Postponement Risk: Trump may delay the dinner, primarily if his legal team advises him. He has a history of postponing major decisions, such as delaying tariffs, stalling the TikTok ban, and softening prior regulatory timelines.
- Buy-the-Rumor, Sell-the-News: Traders who don’t receive dinner invites may exit their positions before the event. Likewise, early buyers may sell immediately after the dinner, taking profits once the hype fades.
These factors could lead to a retracement back toward $10 or even $9, especially if enthusiasm tapers or political pressure intensifies.
Final Outlook
Trump Coin’s near-term direction hinges on whether the exclusive dinner occurs as planned and whether speculative momentum holds. If both conditions align, $TRUMP could challenge resistance near $16. However, a swift pullback is likely if delays occur or holders begin to cash out.
Investors should remain cautious and watch for real-time updates from the Trump Coin team, because in memecoin markets, the hype can vanish as fast as it arrives.
